oil-prices-nov-28

Long Island, NY – November 28, 2015 – Heating oil prices fell sharply on Friday, following a week of recovery. A stronger dollar and weak industrial data from China added pressure on oil and prices for heating oil were down by 3.59%, WTI Crude was down 3.09% and Brent was down 1.32%.

Wednesday’s report from EIA contributed to investors’ concerns on global oversupply. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are currently at 488.2 M barrels, up by a million barrels from last week. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 16.4 M barrels/day, up by 304K barrels/day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 M barrels/day, up by 365K barrels/day. The market has been oversupplied for a while now, and no significant oil price increases are expected until at least 2017. Oil stockpiles remain near record high.

“Oversupply issue will be exacerbated by Iranian oil coming to market soon,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group.

“Oil market oversupply will continue through next year, due to resilient U.S. production, even if it is declining, and high OPEC output led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq,” said Michael Wittner, chief oil analyst at Société Générale.

Another factor that played a role in this week’s oil prices were geopolitical tensions following Turkey shooting down a Russian jet along the Syrian border, which instantly gave oil prices a push midweek, but at this point there is little indication the turmoil in the Middle East will be affecting oil supply.

Michael Poulsen, oil analyst at Global Risk Management, “The potential increase in geopolitical risk premium has faded a bit as the dispute between Russia and Turkey has not yet escalated or spread to the surrounding countries, affecting oil output.”

“Inventory overhangs dominate the oil markets and will likely suppress oil prices in the near-term as we approach [December] OPEC meeting in Vienna,” said Jason Gammel, analyst at Jefferies. “Crude and product inventories are building in the U.S. with the market expected to remain oversupplied through the first half of 2016.”

In the meantime OPEC continues pumping oil at record pace to further secure its position in the oil market.