EIA released its weekly inventory report on Wednesday for the week ending July 17, 2015. Download the report here. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs increased by 45,000 barrels per day, averaging about 16.9 million barrels/day. U.S. crude oil imports also increased by 587,000 barrles per day, averaging over 7.9 million barrels per day. Last month’s US crude imports are up 2.5% compared to the same time last year. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. In all, inventories are at levels not seen for this time of year in at
least the last 80 years.

The rising U.S. crude supply is expanding glut and until recent days, confidence in a strong recovery for oil prices had been pretty high, said analysts Martijn Rats and Haythem Rashed in a report to investors yesterday. And although some of the premises remain true, one is proving to be false. While spending on new oil is falling, demand is rising and stock prices are remaining low, the oil supply has not decreased. In fact, the opposite has happened and while U.S. production has leveled off since June, OPEC has taken up the role of market spoiler.

opec production 2015

The Morgan Stanley analysts said that U.S. production could also rise again and a recovery is less certain than it once was, and the slump could last for three years or more—”far worse than in 1986.”

“In that case,” they wrote, “there would be little in analysable history that could be a guide” for what’s to come.